Expected Hospital Bed Occupancy Rates over Next Five Years
Ministry of HealthSpeakers
Summary
This question concerns projected hospital bed occupancy rates (BOR) and safe capacity limits raised by Mr Leon Perera. Senior Minister of State for Health Dr Janil Puthucheary stated that Ministry of Health modelling expects public hospital BOR to average around 80% over the next five years. He explained that maintaining a BOR below 85% ensures patient safety and provides the necessary capacity to respond to sudden demand surges like pandemics. To mitigate risks during high occupancy, institutions utilize telehealth, manage patient flows, and right-site care into community settings. Senior Minister of State for Health Dr Janil Puthucheary also confirmed that established contingency plans exist and have been activated previously to manage breaches of the 85% threshold.
Transcript
7 Mr Leon Perera asked the Minister for Health (a) what is the Government's modelling for the expected hospital bed occupancy rates over the next five years; (b) what is the hospital bed occupancy rate it considers a safe upper limit; and (c) how does the Government derive this figure.
The Senior Minister of State for Health (Dr Janil Puthucheary) (for the Minister for Health): Mdm Deputy Speaker, based on MOH's modelling, the annual average public hospital Bed Occupancy Rate (BOR) over the next five years would be around 80%.
A sustained BOR of less than 85% in the hospitals is, generally, recommended by academic communities and the healthcare authorities, overseas and here, to ensure patient safety. Sustained BORs above the 85% threshold may increase the risk of poor clinical outcomes due to the reduced access to hospital care.
Based on our experience, operating with a BOR of less than 85% has allowed for hospitals to have sufficient bed capacity to respond to sudden increases in bed demands, for example, during mass casualty situations and pandemics.
While there may be temporary increases over the recommended annual average BOR of 85%, our public healthcare institutions (PHIs) have mitigated the risks by managing patient flows, introducing measures, such as the use of telehealth technologies, to reduce the need for in-person consultations and right-siting care into the community and ambulatory settings.
Mdm Deputy Speaker: Mr Leon Perera.
Mr Leon Perera (Aljunied): I thank the Senior Minister of State for his answer. Just one supplementary question. Given that that is the long-term planning parameter – 80% to 85% occupancy – is there a prescribed plan or series of steps from MOH to the hospitals as to what are the contingency plans when this 85% ceiling is breached? For example, setting up augmented facilities within the same building or transferring patients to the private sector, or any other types of steps when that happens.
Dr Janil Puthucheary: Madam, yes, there is. There have been for many years and those plans have been activated a number of times, including in the COVID-19 pandemic.