Updates on Projections for Shrinking Population from 2025 and Declining Number of Working Citizens from 2020 in 2013 Population White Paper
Prime Minister's OfficeSpeakers
Summary
This question concerns updates to projections in the 2013 Population White Paper regarding the shrinking citizen population and the decline of working-age citizens. Prof Hoon Hian Teck asked if forecasts that the citizen population would shrink from 2025 and the working workforce would decline from 2020 have been revised. Minister Indranee Rajah affirmed that these scenarios remain valid, noting that citizens aged 20 to 64 likely peaked around 2020 and would decline even faster without immigration. She explained that a calibrated intake of new residents moderates the impact of ageing while maintaining a strong core, as 87% of citizens were born in Singapore. Lastly, the Minister noted a slight population decline in 2020 due to COVID-19 and stated that the government will continue to monitor the pandemic's long-term impacts.
Transcript
1 Prof Hoon Hian Teck asked the Prime Minister whether there is any revision to two projections contained in the Population White Paper published in January 2013, namely (i) at current birth rates and without immigration, our citizen population will shrink from 2025 onwards and (ii) the number of citizens in the working ages of 20 to 64 years will decline from 2020 due to more citizens retiring and fewer citizens entering the workforce.
Ms Indranee Rajah (for the Prime Minister): Minister Josephine Teo provided an update on our population outlook during the Committee of Supply debate in 2018. In that speech, we also provided an update on the following scenarios1:
(a) based on the total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.22 and without immigration, our total citizen population will shrink in the long term.
(b) even with immigration, the number of citizens aged 20 to 64 would likely peak around 2020 and decline thereafter. Without immigration, this group would have started to shrink earlier and decline at a much faster rate.
The changes to Singapore’s population set out in these scenarios remain valid. While we continue to take in a calibrated number of citizens and permanent residents to moderate the impact of ageing and low birth rates, we maintain a strong and cohesive core. In 2020, around 77% of Singapore residents (comprising Singapore Citizens and Permanent Residents) were born in Singapore, while around 87% of citizens were born in Singapore3.
The ongoing COVID-19 situation has had an impact on our population numbers for 2020. We saw a slight decline in our total population last year but it is too early to assess the full impact at this point. We will continue to monitor the immediate and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on our population trends and scenarios.