Impact on Rice Supply Given El Nino Effect and Weather Changes

51 Mr Chen Show Mao asked the Minister for Trade and Industry (Trade) (a) whether the Ministry foresees a reduction in the supply of rice from countries, such as Thailand, Vietnam, India and elsewhere in Southeast and South Asia, due to the 2015-2016 El Nino and associated drought and heatwave; and (b) how might such a reduction impact rice prices in Singapore over the rest of the year.

Mr Lim Hng Kiang: As a consequence of El Nino, the United States (US) Department of Agriculture expects a reduction in world rice production for 2016 by 1.6% or 7.7 million metric tons due to reduced crop yields in major rice-producing countries, such as Thailand, India and Vietnam. However, the market does not expect a supply disruption, due to the availability of rice from stockpiles, such as those in Thailand.

Furthermore, El Nino has weakened with the arrival of the monsoon in June. World rice production for the year ahead is forecast by the US Department of Agriculture to increase by 9.8 million metric tons.

Retail prices of rice in Singapore have been relatively stable in the last one year and are expected to remain so for the rest of the year, barring any unforeseen crisis.