Frameworks for Stress-testing Impact on Singapore's Economy When Major Trading Partners Make Sudden Legal and Policy Decisions
Ministry of Trade and IndustrySpeakers
Summary
This question concerns the frameworks used to stress-test the impact of sudden policy shifts by major trading partners on Singapore’s economy and trade-exposed sectors. Mr Yip Hon Weng inquired about contingency planning following US tariff developments, prompting Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong to highlight the role of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce (SERT). SERT monitors economic indicators like GDP and export growth while gathering industry feedback to strengthen sensemaking of global macro changes and support affected businesses. The Government’s strategy focuses on market diversification, deepening digital and green economy linkages, and upholding the rules-based international trading system. To assist directly affected firms, the Business Adaptation Grant was launched in 2025 and subsequently enhanced by the Prime Minister to provide up to 70% support.
Transcript
18 Mr Yip Hon Weng asked the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry in light of the recent rapid shifts in the US tariff policy following a Supreme Court ruling and given Singapore's reliance on external demand (a) what frameworks or criteria the Ministry uses to stress-test sudden legal and policy volatility in major trading partners; and (b) how these assessments inform contingency planning for trade-exposed sectors.
Mr Gan Kim Yong: The Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce (SERT) was established in April 2025 to strengthen our collective sensemaking of changes in the macro environment and support businesses and workers in navigating global economic uncertainties.
SERT works with our tripartite and industry partners to gather feedback on how businesses and workers are affected. For instance, SERT convened last week to discuss the tariff developments and preliminary sentiments of businesses and workers. In addition, the Government closely tracks economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, and sectoral value-added growth, domestic exports growth, unemployment rates, retrenchments, as well as firms' hiring and wage expectations.
The Government's approach to strengthening resilience of our trade-exposed sectors is to, firstly, help our firms diversify the markets that they serve. Secondly, deepen our trade and investment linkages with like-minded partners, such as cooperation in growth areas, like the digital and green economies, as well as in supply chain resilience. And thirdly, to continue working with partners to uphold and shape the rules-based international trading system.
To support our business and workers who are directly affected by sudden tariff measures, SERT launched the Business Adaptation Grant in October 2025 to help eligible enterprises adapt their business operations and strengthen supply chain resilience, with support levels at 50%. At Budget 2026, the Prime Minister and Minister for Finance announced that support levels would be enhanced up to 70%.